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Analysis: Israeli-Arab dispute feeds ire

By CLAUDE SALHANI, UPI International Editor

WASHINGTON, Dec. 13 (UPI) -- Less than a week after the Iraq Study Group report emphasized that resolving the Israeli-Palestinian conflict would help settle other disputes in the Middle East, a UPI-Zogby International poll shows that a majority of Americans surveyed back that notion.

A poll conducted on 6,296 Americans between Dec. 4 and Dec. 6 found that for 59.2 percent, it is very important to resolve the Israeli-Palestinian dispute. The numbers were high regardless of party affiliation. Among Democrats 67 percent found it very important compared to 51.8 percent among Republicans and 59.1 for Independents.

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For Liberals the percentage was 66.6, moderates 62.3, conservatives 53.5, ultraconservatives 47.5 and Libertarians 36.3.

There was a big spread however between people who shop at Wal-Mart frequently (53.2 percent) and those who shop elsewhere (75.9 percent).

Asked who is to blame for the breakdown of the Middle East peace process, 10.3 percent said Israel, 37.2 faulted the Palestinians and 46.7 percent said both shared equal blame.

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President George W. Bush received poor marks (44.1 percent) for his handling of the current Israeli-Palestinian situation; 25.6 percent gave him a "good" grade, 18.8 percent judged him "fair," while only 7.6 percent rated the president's scorecard as "excellent." Among Democrats the score sinks to a trifle one percent who judged him "excellent," 3.9 percent gave him a "good" mark, 13.7 scored him as "fair," while the over riding majority -- 77.8 percent -- graded the president's performance "poor."

The picture is better among the president's own Republican Party with 15.3 percent saying the president did an "excellent" job, 50.6 percent voting "good," 21.9 percent checking the "fair" box and only 8.2 percent finding his performance "poor."

The majority of those polled, 68.3 percent, found that Bush leans more towards Israel, only 1.8 believe the American president favors the Palestinians and 19.4 said Bush is steering a middle course.

In pursuing the peace process in the Middle East -- if it ever came to that again -- 35 percent said Bush should lean toward Israel; those who believe the president should favor the Palestinians were in a minority at 3.6 percent, while 55.8 percent said the president should choose the middle ground.

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Is the United States acting as a fair and honest broker in the Middle East conflict? Answering "yes" were 36.5 percent, "no" 48.6 percent and "neither" 14.9 percent.

Asked if they agree that Palestinians are entitled to equal rights, 79.1 percent said "yes," while 12.8 percent disagreed. As for the establishment of a Palestinian state 64.7 percent said "yes," 15.4 percent said "no."

Of the Palestinians who left or were forced to leave as a result of the 1948 war, 29.5 percent said they should not be allowed to return to Israel to live and should not be compensated for the land that was lost.

But a greater number, 44.5 percent, said Palestinians who left or were forced to leave as a result of the 1948 war should be allowed to return to Israel to live or should be compensated for the land that was lost.

On Jerusalem, 33.7 percent of respondents feel it should be partitioned with one part of the city as the Israeli capital and one part as the Palestinian capital. Division should be based both on the local population and the location of and access to holy sites.

Opposing that notion, 31.6 percent said Jerusalem should remain under the control of the Israeli government with the Israeli government controlling access to the city and that Palestinians currently living in the area of East Jerusalem should be allowed to remain in the city, and their access to holy sites controlled by Israelis.

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On the issue of the controversial security wall/barrier/moat Israel is building in the West Bank to prevent terrorists, and which it calls a "fence," the Palestinians call "an apartheid wall" and the United Nations calls a "barrier," 45.3 percent found the "wall" to be necessary for the security of Israel and Israeli settlers.

However, 38.7 percent believe the "wall" hurts the local economy by dividing cities and communities, and prevent the free flow of goods and services.

Water, of course, is a major issue in the Israeli-Palestinian dispute; 16.4 percent said access to water should be controlled by those who own the land on which the water is found. And 69.9 percent said access to water should be equitably distributed among residents of the region based on the size of the local populations.

Another issue of great debate has been Israel's policy of building settlements on occupied Palestinian land. Asked if the settlements are necessary for the security of Israel and if Israeli citizens have the right to build on land in the Palestinian West Bank, 24.6 percent said "yes."

Asked if Israeli settlements built on land confiscated from Palestinians should be torn down and the land returned to Palestinian owners, 47.2 said yes.

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Hamas in Gaza and the West Bank, and Hezbollah in Lebanon, are designated by the United States as terrorist organizations, yet as political parties each has won a substantial number of seats in their respective parliaments through democratic elections. Respondent were asked if they support the U.S. policy of refusing to talk to these organizations, or should the United States engage these groups as they would other democratically elected groups? "Yes," engage them, said 45.7 percent, while 42.1 percent said do not engage them.

Supporters and opponents of Israel/Palestine are closely divided on the issue of economic and humanitarian aid to the Palestinian people and whether the U.S. provides too much, too little, or just enough. "Too much," said 29 percent, "too little," say 27.7 percent. A smaller number, 12.1 percent say "just enough."

Moving on to the question of force, 33.1 percent say Israel is using excessive force against Palestinians; 22.8 percent believe it's the right amount, while 24.3 think Israel is not using enough force.

Regarding last August's war between Hezbollah and Israel, respondents were asked if Israel was justified in invading Lebanon to attack Hezbollah forces who had kidnapped two Israeli soldiers? More than half, 57.6 percent, said "yes"; 31.1 percent said "no." And to the question whether Israeli bombing of Lebanon's infrastructure was justified and appropriate, justified but excessive, or unjustified? Justified and appropriate said 37.0 percent; justified but excessive said 25.9 percent and 29.1 found it unjustified.

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Twenty-nine point six percent said the United States should have intervened in the early stages of the conflict, but they were countered by 59.5 percent who said "no" to U.S. intervention. As for Bush's hope to spread democracy in the Middle East, 61.2 percent say it will help U.S. interests. On the other hand, 12.3 percent say it will hinder them.

If the United States had to choose between Israel and the Arab world, 20.1 percent found U.S.-Israeli relations more important, 13.9 percent opted for the Arab world, but interestingly, 63.8 percent said both are equally important.

Asked if they agree or disagree that U.S. and Israeli interests are identical, 28.6 percent agree, while 52.9 percent disagree.

On the question of energy, 12.9 percent believe U.S. support for Israel makes energy supplies safer. But 40.7 percent believe U.S. support of the Jewish state makes energy supplies less safe.

Do you believe that pro-Israel interest groups have large amount of influence on American policy? "Yes," said 47.5 percent, moderate influence 33.3 percent, little or no influence 8.6 percent.

As to when they thought a peaceful settlement will be reached in the Middle East, 3.1 percent said within two years; 13.4 percent said 10 years; 16.8 percent believed peace would be achievable in their lifetime and 48.3 percent said peace would never be achieved.

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There is an old joke told in the Middle East with the American president as leader of the free world, Jacques Chirac as a top European leader and Prime Minister Ehud Olmert representing the nation of Israel; all are summoned to heaven. God tells the three men they can each ask one question.

Bush asks God when will America defeat its enemies and install democracy in the Middle East? "Not in your lifetime, George," said the Almighty. Depressed, Bush leaves in tears.

Chirac next asks God when will France become the greatest nation in the world. "Not in your lifetime, Jacques," says God. Chirac, disappointed, leaves in tears.

Olmert asks God when will there be peace in the Middle East? God gets up and runs out the door in tears saying, "Not in my lifetime, Ehud."

(The poll has a +/- 1.3 percent margin of error.)

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(Comments may be sent to [email protected]).

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